Localised water wars?

Whilst potential conflicts on an international scale can often be avoided through diplomatic negotiations and agreements, this is not the case for regional water wars, particularly in countries with already existing social, political or economic instability (Engelke and Sticklor 2015).

Regional conflicts often erupt between pastoralists and farmers; drought is depleting grazing areas for nomadic herders and so pastoralists are increasingly invading farmland (Taylor 2011). Such disputes occur in low-income nations where survival is dependent on water access, and the desperation of the situation means that the clashes flare up rapidly (Ashton 2002). In 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon branded the conflict in Darfur the world’s first climate change conflict, stating that harsher droughts had kick-started war between farmers and pastoralists in the region (Notaras 2009).

Water shortages due to environmental change can trigger migration to regions with larger water supplies. Environmental migration can create conflict with the receiving population by increasing the strain on resources, especially in cases where there is tension between different ethnic communities (Reuveny 2007).

One region experiencing environmental migration is between the Omo River in Ethiopia and Lake Turkana in Kenya. There are 24 tribes reliant on the Omo River and the downstream Lake Turkana for their water supply. However, the Horn of Africa has experienced recurrent drought for the past 40 years, and the drought cycle has intensified from once every eight years to once every two to three years (Adano and Daudi 2012). Less rainfall, alongside the diversion of water for irrigation and dam projects, has caused the river to retreat. Lake Turkana receives 90% of its water from the Omo River, but a combination of rising temperatures and less rainfall has caused the lake to recede into Kenya. In the past, the tribes have used indigenous knowledge to adapt their agricultural practices and water usage to droughts, but the communities no longer understand the patterns of the seasons with the increasing frequency of drought conditions, and are struggling to adapt accordingly. Therefore in times of scarcity the Ethiopian tribes have followed the water into Kenya, and inter-tribal encounters that have ensued have caused the increase of conflict; the Turkana tribe are notorious for their extreme violence, attacking and killing anyone they find trespassing (Yale Environment 360 2010).

Lake Turkana, Kenya (Source: EVWind)

Another case of regional violence took place in Nigeria in 2014 between Fulani herdsmen – the largest semi-nomadic group in the world – and Tiv/Agatu farmers over grazing areas and water access (Gleick 2015). Military intervention was required to quell the fighting, and the conflict resulted in over 1,200 deaths. Rising temperatures and drought in Nigeria are forcing the Fulani herdsmen to roam further south and so they are increasingly clashing with the farming communities that they encounter. Furthermore, ethnic tensions between the Muslim Fulani herdsmen and Christian agricultural communities intensify the conflict (Adams 2016). Such conflicts have had knock-on effects on Nigeria’s national development by discouraging foreign investment and thwarting trade (Mikailu 2016).

A Fulani herdsman, Nigeria (Source: BBC)

What potential solutions are there to preventing regional conflicts?

Once again, we come back to the importance of good governance. There is a close link between inadequate law enforcement of resource allocation, and the incidence of conflict, in countries with weak governance (Adano and Daudi 2012). Therefore, governments need to be more proactive in providing clear regulations for water resource use and enforcing them effectively (Balch 2014). Ideally, when creating these regulations, civil society stakeholders should be involved in the decision-making process, as local society groups often have a better understanding of the facts on the ground than politicians. When communities feel that they have been given a voice, it’s more likely that peaceful negotiations can take place between societal groups. Additionally, stakeholder participation creates a sense of ownership over the outcomes, making the policies easier to enforce (Adano and Daudi 2012).

In situations when the actions of national governments alone are not good enough, international intervention is required, whether through negotiations or the provision of aid to communities lacking food. However it is important that the response is appropriate in serving the needs of the recipients. For example, in response to the case of the Omo River and Lake Turkana dispute, the international community sent food aid; surely this generous contribution would hugely benefit those suffering food shortages. But what food did they send? Maize, which requires water to cook: highly impractical for a community desperately lacking water.

Moreover, alongside a humanitarian response, a long-term development approach to tackle the problems of drought faced by local communities is essential to prevent conflict, such as through investment in drought-resilient crops or water-harvesting technologies (Yale Environment 360 2010).

Overall, to effectively and lastingly prevent regional disputes, local communities need to feel that they are being listened to and are provided with truly beneficial solutions.